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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-03-21T18:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-21T18:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29690/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 3614 (~N30E30) starting around 2024-03-21T18:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at this time in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well, with post eruptive dimming visible around 19:00Z in SDO AIA 193. This CME was likely swept into the front of 2024-03-23T01:25Z and 2024-03-23T01:48Z O-type CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-25T21:32Z (-11.91h, +13.85h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2024/03/21 18:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 02:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 09:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction
POS Difference: 7:40
POS Midpoint: 05:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:10

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.85
Travel Time: ~8.85 * 11:10 = 98:52

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-25T21:32Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Lead Time: 79.30 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-03-22T14:14Z
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